How you should use these notes: read these notes before you start the assigned readings for each day. As you read, keep your eyes open for these concepts, which are only some of the ideas in the book. Constantly be asking yourself what point the authors are trying to make in each section, and how each point fits into the goal of their chapter and the goal of the entire book.
You may find it hard to articulate the answers to these questions. That's OK! Becoming more articulate is a major reason for attending college. We suggest writing down your answers, so you can edit and refine your language. Writers call this "finding your voice."
We know that this book may be hard to read and these concepts hard to voice. Your instructors are happy to help you work through any difficulties you may have.
How you should not use these notes: Please do not consider your reading a "scavenger hunt" in which you are only looking for the answers to certain questions. On tests and pop quizzes we will ask some questions from these notes, and other questions as well.
Beyond the Limits contains many known facts, but also reaches many controversial conclusions. You must read this book critically -- you may not agree with their conclusions, but you must have real reasons for not doing so. The notes are intended to help you understand what the authors are trying to say. Only by first understanding their arguments can you come to your own understanding.
What was the problem posed by the Club of Rome?
How was the World3 model related to this problem?
Was Limits to Growth a prediction of doom? Why or why not?
What were the three conclusions this group reached in 1972? Which conclusions were pessimistic and which were optimistic?
Why is this book called Beyond the Limits?
The authors write that they re-ran the World3 model "with some trepidation." What were they afraid of? Did their fears come true? Why or why not?
How do the three revised conditions differ from the three original conclusions? In what way are they the same?
A teacher who used this book writes about "being bereaved." What was he talking about?
What is the authors' own emotional response to their findings? Do you think it is appropriate for them to tell about their feelings in this book?
The authors use several synonyms for the key terms industrialized and less-industrialized. What are these synonyms and how do they match up? (For example, is "North" the same as "industrialized" or "less industrialized"?)
The authors make a big deal about the difference between growth and development. How do they use these terms, and why is the difference so important?
What are the three underlying causes of overshoot?
The authors attempt to use three common "lenses" to evaluate the world situation. What are these?
The fourth, uncommon lens is something they call "systems thinking." What does this mean?
What point are the authors trying to make with Figures 1-1 through 1-4 and table 1-1?
The figure on the bottom of page 7 illustrates the concept of throughput. What does this word mean?
In this chapter the authors look ahead and preview the remaining chapters of the book. Which chapter is intended to provide evidence that humanity is capable of making the changes necessary (in their view) to avoid ecological collapse?
Which chapter is devoted to describing what a sustainable world might be like?
The two graphs in Figure 1-4 each show one curve up to the midpoint of the graph, splitting into many curves on the right side of the graph. Why do the curves split? What is the meaning of the different curves on the right side of the graph?
What point are the authors trying to make with Figure 2-1?
Which two figures in today's readings illustrate the difference between linear growth and exponential growth?
The authors define the condition that creates linear growth. This is a condition on the amount of increase of some quantity. What is this condition?
The authors define the condition that creates exponential growth. This is also a condition on the amount of increase of some quantity. What is this condition?
What does "proportional" mean, as used in the definition of exponential growth? You may want to use a dictionary for this one.
What point are the authors trying to make with the story about the lily pond?
What is the relationship between percentage growth rate and doubling time?
If the population of a country is now 200 million people and its population is growing at 7% per year, how long would it take until the country's population will be 400 million people?
What is a positive feedback loop, and how is it related to exponential growth?
What are the two engines of exponential growth in the modern world?
The authors describe the rate of world population growth between 1900 and 1970 as superexponential. What does this mean? What was the reason behind this superexponential growth?
In 1991 more people were added to the world's population than in 1971, although the population growth rate in 1991 was lower than in 1971. Explain this seeming contradiction.
The diagram at the bottom of page 24 shows population driven by both a positive feedback loop and a negative feedback loop. What is the meaning of each of these feedback loops?
The demographic transition consists of two population-related trends, one of which always happens before the other. What are these two trends and which one happens first?
In figure 2-4, a very significant event occurs around the year 1970. What is this event and what are the consequences?
What will happen to a country's population size if fertility is higher than mortality over a long period of time?
What will happen to a country's population size if mortality is higher than fertility over a long period of time?
What will happen to a country's population size if fertility is equal to mortality over a long period of time?
The authors divide countries into three groups for the purpose of discussing fertility and mortality trends. What are these three group? What are the fertility and mortality characteristics of each group? How do these groups relate to the theory of the demographic transition?
On pages 30 and 31 are graphs illustrating the demographic transitions of three industrialized countries and three less-industrialized countries. According to the authors' discussion of these graphs, what are the key differences between how the demographic transition was experienced by the currently industrialized countries and how it is currently being experienced by the less-industrialized countries?
What general trend is shown in Figure 2-7? What do the authors believe to be the more specific factors influencing birth rates?
Why is the graph on page 109 called "nonlinear"?
Nobody can actually eat 14,000 calories a day without turning into a balloon. Why does the X-axis scale on this graph go up to 14,000?
The text says that World3 is complex but not complicated. In what ways is it not "complicated"? Why did the designers make it so "simple"?
What are the four possible modes of approach to a limit?
According to the authors, what is the sole purpose of this model, and which two key questions is it intended to answer?
What is a point prediction. Is World3 designed to make point predictions? Why or why not?
On page 111 are shown the central feedback loops for population and capital. What are the positive and negative feedback loops in this model?
How does World3 provide connections between the population and capital submodels? What is the role of land and agriculture in connecting the two components?
What point is the graph on page 116 intended to make about the relationship between capital and remaining nonrenewable resources?
How many different kinds of nonrenewable resources are assumed to exist in World3? How much is the assumed initial stock of these resources?
How does pollution affect soil fertility in World3?
What elements are missing from World3 which might make it too optimistic?
What is meant by the phrase "Garbage in, garbage out?"
What is meant by the phrase "Infinity in, infinity out?" What are the predictions of World3 when these assumptions are made?
Under what conditions will a system stop precisely at its limit?
What is the primary mechanism which causes a system to overshoot its limit?
How is the story of PCBs related to the last two questions?
Under what conditions will a system overshoot its limits, but recover by oscillating around its limits?
What does oscillation mean anyway?
Under what conditions will a system overshoot and collapse? What plausible real-world examples of this behavior are given in the book?
What is meant by an "erosive positive feedback loop"? Why is this of particular concern? How is soil acidity in Europe an example?
In World3 Scenario 1, how much of the world's initial stock of nonrenewable resources has been used up between 1900 and 1990? Does this number imply that the model could run for another 90 years and use up an equal amount of resources? Why or why not?
What happens to soil fertility after the year 2000? How does this affect total food production?
How do changes in soil fertility and natural resource availability affect total capital?
What mechanisms in Scenario 1 eventually stop economic growth? Population growth?
What assumptions are changed in Scenario 2? How does this affect the result?
Even though resources are running out, pollution plays the more direct role in triggering the nightmare scenarios of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. How does pollution trigger the collapse?
Overshoot and collapse turns out to be the most common behavior mode of the World3 model. How is momentum a key part of the problem? What is meant by "momentum" in this context?
What are the warning signals which tell a society whether it is in overshoot? Does our current society appear to be exhibiting any of these signals? Part of the answer to this last question depends on technical economic data which we don't have immediately available. However, if our society is currently in overshoot mode, at least some of these warning signs should be obvious to anyone reading the newspapers or even watching TV news.
What are the central assumptions in World3 which create overshoot-and-collapse behavior? Do these assumptions seem reasonable to you?
What are the keys to avoiding overshoot and collapse behavior?
Dr. Sherwood Rowland won a Nobel prize for his discoveries about atmosperic chemistry. What is the relevance of the quote which opens this chapter to the ozone story?
Why is the ozone story considered a success story? What sobering note is introduced in the second paragraph of page 142?
Why were CFCs so useful?
How many times more CFCs did the average North American or European use than the average Chinese or Indian?
Why is the ozone layer important?
How is a single chlorine atom able to destroy up to 100,000 ozone molecules?
Why is there a 15-year delay between emitting CFCs into the environment and the resultant ozone destruction?
CFCs were banned as propellants in the US in 1978. Why did this cause only a temporary drop in total CFC production?
Why did the Nimbus-7 satellite never detect the Antarctic ozone hole?
Why are the results depicted in Figure 5-5 considered a "smoking gun" with respect to the effect of CFCs on the ozone layer?
Why did the ozone hole appear over Antarctica and not elsewhere?
How long it take for the ozone depletion to disappear, assuming CFC emissions are cut off?
How was the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) instrumental in helping the negotiate the ban on CFCs?
How did Donald Hodel's remarks embarrass the United States? What affect did this have on the ozone negotiations?
What was the Montreal Protocol? What was the London Agreement?
How have manufacturers coped with the banning of CFCs?
Is the ozone layer getting better or worse? Why?
What six conclusions to the authors draw from the ozone story? Does the story support these six assertions, in your opinion?
What were the most common criticisms of the World3 model back in 1972?
How did the authors use model runs to test the effects of improved technology?
Are the authors against technology, or do they favor technology in general?
What is the authors' attitude about business and markets?
How are technology and markets expected to correct any resource shortage problem?
Why might it be harder for technology and resources to correct a pollution problem than a resource problem?
How are nonrenewable resources and capital related in World3?
What assumptions do the authors make in Scenario 3? Why does total industrial output decline in this scenario?
How does Scenario 4 differ from Scenario 3? What is the result?
How does Scenario 5 differ from Scenario 4? What is the result?
How does Scenario 6 differ from Scenario 5? What is the result?
How does Scenario 7 differ from Scenario 6? What is the result?
How does Figure 6-2 illustrate the phenomenon of oscillation in markets?
How does Figure 6-3 illustrate the limitations of markets in preserving biological resources?
Look here for ongoing notes and study questions for future readings from Beyond the Limits. We hope you find this book as challenging and stimulating as we do!